The Social Democrats were supported by 37.1 percent of voters, compared with 14.6 percent for Boc’s Liberal Democrats in a survey of 1,093 people conducted Sept. 9-13 by GSS 2000. The poll, commissioned by the opposition Liberals, had a margin of error of 3 percent.
“If the unions manage to get many people out into the streets this may create pressure on government lawmakers,” said Cristian Parvulescu, a political analyst at Asociatia Pro Democratia, a Bucharest-based group that promotes democracy. Boc’s Liberal Democrat party includes “former union leaders who may feel extra pressure to vote against the government.”
Raffaella Tenconi, an economist at Bank of America/Merrill Lynch in London, said she expects Boc’s government will survive the confidence vote, though further fiscal consolidation will be “very challenging” given the depth of the recession.
“We are not surprised to see growing popular discontent given the recently announced austerity measures,” she said. “We expect this trend to continue in coming months, accentuating the low popular support for the ruling party PDL.”
European Discontent
Workers across eastern Europe are taking to the streets to protest budget cuts after the global financial crisis slashed tax revenue and investment flows. The EU is demanding that all of its members bring their budget deficits in line with the bloc’s limit of 3 percent of GDP after Greece’s ballooning debt undermined confidence in the euro.
Tens of thousands Czech firemen, policemen and other state workers rallied Sept. 21 in Prague to protest planned wage cuts, while Slovak unions plan demonstrations against proposed tax increases. Slovenian civil servants went on strike today to protest plans to cut or freeze their salaries. Some 80,000 workers, or half the public workforce joined the strike, according to the Ljubljana-based newspaper Delo.
“It’s an experience from all over Europe that austerity measures, which very often include budget cuts, are leading to similar demonstrations,” Czech Prime Minister Petr Necas said at the rally against his government’s plans. The moves “are quite naturally unpopular.”
‘Delicate Situation’
The decline of Romania’s economy, which contracted a 7.1 percent last year, slowed in the second quarter as demand for goods such as cars, chemicals, steel and textiles increased in western Europe. GDP shrank 0.5 percent from a year earlier, after a 2.6 percent decline in the previous three months, according to the National Statistics Institute in Bucharest.
Parliament approved Boc’s government in December, ending a stalemate that had left Romania without leadership for more than two months and delayed payments from international lenders. Boc replaced six members of his Cabinet, including the finance and economy ministers, on Sept. 2 in an effort to shore up support for his program in the face of increasing protests.
Romania’s political squabbles have helped weaken the country’s currency. The leu has dropped 1 percent against the euro during the past 12 months, the second-worst performance among 25 emerging-market currencies tracked by Bloomberg. The Romanian leu weakened 0.1 percent to 4.2465 per euro as of 4:23 p.m. in Bucharest, while the Bucharest Stock Exchange’s benchmark BET index rose 1.3 percent to 5,279.64.
“Boc’s Cabinet is already facing an extremely delicate situation, and it will lead a hard life if it survives the planned confidence motion,” said Alexandru Cumpanasu, political analyst and deputy head of the Association for Implementing Democracy, in a phone interview. “If we see more protests on a bigger scale in October, then the pressure on lawmakers to vote for the motion will be huge.”
To contact the reporters on this story: Irina Savu in Bucharest at isavu at bloomberg.net; Andra Timu in Bucharest at atimu at bloomberg.net.
To contact the editor responsible for this story: James M. Gomez in Prague at jagomez at bloomberg.net
